In our last post we mentioned 5 Pitchers Who Won’t See Their Hot Starts Last. Promptly there-after, those guys combined for two wins and a save on the very night that was posted. We didn’t say when they would start to falter – just that they would (yes that’s an excuse to cover ourselves until these guys actually fall apart). Anyways, in this installment we have the five hitters who got out of the gates almost as fast as Super Saver. By the end of the season though, they’ll be closer to Awesome Act (19th place – ouch).
1) Austin Jackson
I love guys who were former big-time prospects and shine after moving to a new team. Something doesn’t smell right about this one though. It’s probably the 34 strikeouts in 114 at-bats or the crazy .524 BAbip which are holding me back from being enamored with the 23 year-old Texas native. The best analog for Jackson is Grady Sizemore who had a 2.5:1 SO:BB ratio in his first full big-league season. Jackson’s ratio is greater than 3:1. While Sizemore is a great player, he doesn’t hit for a high average, and Jackson doesn’t have the same power. Once the strikeouts catch up to him, Jackson projects to a .280 hitter with a .360 OBP. If he does that for the rest of the season, he’ll still have a great rookie campaign.
2) Marlon Byrd
I could have picked one of a few Cubbies (lamest team nickname ever) here. Ryan Theriot, Kosuke Fukudome and AlfonSO-SOriano are all exceeding (personal) expectations. None-the-less the Cubs still aren’t over .500 as a ballclub. Byrd is off to a great start after three solid seasons in Texas. He’s on pace for more than 30 HRs and 120 RBIs. I could probably end the argument right there as to why he will cool down, but there’s more. He has just three walks in 108 plate appearances. He’s never been known to walk much, but maintaining a .370 OBP with fewer than 20 walks for a season is going to be difficult. Right now he’s hitting .340 after pitchers get him down 0-1. That’s more than 100 points higher than the league average. What that tells me is that the league is having a tough time figuring out how to put him away. This is common in a new league for a guy who doesn’t strike out a lot. Give the National League time to (re) adjust and he’ll be back to a .280, 10, 60 guy who needs to steal more bases to be effective.
3) Vladimir Guerrero
It looks like a rejuvenation of sorts for the once fleet-footed 35 year-old. In reality, though, it’s a simple case of Vlad being hot at home. He’s hitting two times better at home (.449) than on the road (.224) and is slugging 347 points higher (.653 vs .306). His OPS+ at home is 167, compared to just 33 on the road. Obviously he’s not going to continue to hit in the .220s away from Arlington, and he’s certainly not going to hit over .440 at home (even though he’s a career .405 hitter at the Ballpark in Arlington). All in all, I’d expect a modest rest of the season for Vlad. His batting average has dipped in three straight seasons, while his slugging percentage has followed suit in five straight. His ceiling is probably his 2008 season (.303, 27, 91), but I’d count on something closer to .300, 20, 80.
4) Kelly Johnson
Someone has Mark Reynolds syndrome: swing hard in case you make contact. He had 57 XBHs in 2008, but he’s on pace for more than 100 this year. His career slugging percentage was .430 coming into this season. Right now he’s sitting at a cool .677 with an OPS over 1.000. Why the power surge? Chase Field. That’s right, the home of the Diamondbacks is yielding a ridiculous 3.42 homers/game (Johnson has 7 @ home, 2 on road). Only three other stadiums are giving up more than 2.42! Last year Chase Field saw 2.15 homers/night – right in the middle of the pack. It seems to be lively down there right now. Once it settles down, Kelly Johnson will be the first to feel the effect.
5) Alex Gonzalez
This one’s pretty obvious. Gonzalez has already matched his 2009 home run total and is 54% of the way to his RBI total. All of this despite striking out 28 times in 111 ABs. His BA and OBP (career: .295 – ugly) aren’t high, just his slugging percentage. An astounding 20 of his 31 hits have gone for extra bases. He’s not just bouncing the ball around the Skydome carpet, either. He has more total bases/game at home than on the road. The biggest reason for his success seems to have come from his placement in the lineup. Coming into this season about 65% of his at-bats were in the 7, 8 or 9 spot in the order. When Aaron Hill got injured he got the opportunity to hit 2nd or 6th in the lineup. Toronto has an abundance of good young hitters which will force Gonzalez down in the order and have him working on getting that slugging percentage under .400 where it belongs.
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Silva has started five games and gone 2-0 with a 2.90 ERA for the Cubs. The plump right-hander led the league in SO:BB in 2005 with a ratio of 7.89. His next best season? 2.47. That’s an incredible difference between a “best” and “second-best” season. This year his ratio is at 3.50. His walks per nine innings are at his career average, but his strikeouts are about 60% higher. He had success in the NL with the Phillies a while back, and this may be an A.L -> N.L. thing. At any rate, once opposing batters find a way to put the wood on the ball, Silva is doomed. He averages 1.2 hits/inning career (0.83 this year), and here’s betting quite a few of those balls will end up on Waveland.
This one is a couple days late as AAArdsma has blown 2 of his last 4 save chances. None-the-less, there’s more cooling off to come. In case you missed it, the Rice product actually had 38 saves last year thanks in large part to increased control and fewer hits given up. This year he’s leading the American League with 8 saves and is sporting a WHIP of 0.84. Aardsma is a streaky pitcher, though. Last year he had a great two month run and fizzled down the stretch. In 2007 he was the best White Sox reliever before having to face some pressure (Cubs and Yankees series). If the Mariners have nothing to play for, he’ll be fine. But once they get on a roll and start to contend, Aardsma will be back to his old ways.
Nobody expects a 35 year-old (closer to 50 probably) soft-tosser to sport a sub-1.00 ERA the whole year. On the same token, I wouldn’t be counting on Livan to have a sub-4.50 ERA by the end of the year, either. First of all, he hasn’t done that in five years. Secondly, his second half ERA has been at least 0.80 runs higher than his first half ERA in each of the last three seasons. Now granted, he was going from like 5.40 to 6.20, but he still shows signs of regression as the season plays out. His early success seems to be as much luck as anything else. His hits/9 innings is 45% lower than his career average.
Just kidding. It’s his initialed brethren A.J. Burnett who’s going to be in for a bit of a fall. His hits are where they should be, but his strikeouts are down – a lot. When looking at both of those numbers together, it means there are a lot more balls being hit into play off him and a much lower percent of them are falling in for hits. Once that anomaly corrects itself, Burnett will be looking at another high win (Thanks, Yanks), average ERA season.
He’s six for six in save opportunities and has given up just a lone run in twelve innings of work. This is the same guy who gave up 13 homers in 68.2 IP last year. Now, he’s sporting a Silva-like 7.50 SO:BB ratio, thanks in large part to his surrendering just two walks in twelve innings. The home runs will come, and they’ll be foreshadowed by walks. Just look at 2009 when his walk rate increased by 25% and his home run rate nearly doubled in the second half of the season. 
With the impending firing of Vinny Del Negro, the door is now open for one of the most perfect marriages in NBA history. Phil Jackson and Lebron James will lead the Chicago Bulls to an NBA Championship next year. This is being reported by Adam Schefter. Seriously, when Adam Schefter dies he’s going to be the one reporting his own death. While Schef-dog – as I’m sure Stuart Scott and all those other clowns call him – didn’t report this blockbuster story, there are plenty of reasons why this might go down.
